4 edition of A state-level analysis of the great moderation found in the catalog.
A state-level analysis of the great moderation
Michael T. Owyang
|Statement||by Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger, and Howard J. Wall.|
|Series||Working paper -- 2007-003B, Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis : Online) -- 2007-003B.|
|Contributions||Piger, Jeremy Max., Wall, Howard J., Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.|
|The Physical Object|
|LC Control Number||2007615350|
1 The expression 'Great Moderation' was first coined by Stock and Watson in a paper. The paper originally focused on the US economy but the reduction in volatility has taken place to vari ous degrees in all advanced economies. Throughout his note, the expression 'Great Moderation' is used in the broader context of OECD countries. A state-level analysis of the great moderation "A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level.
In this article, we provide new, novel evidence for a more recent structural break (in ) indicating a greater moderation of output volatility compared to the well-known break during the mids. The period of analysis runs from Q2 to Q3. It covers 26 OECD countries. In terms of methodology, it has mainly been used as the measures of conditional and unconditional volatility and. This period has been dubbed “The Great Moderation” and it is significant. The standard deviation during the years was but one-half the standard deviation of the quarterly growth rate of real gross domestic product between the years (Summers ).
What explains the Great Moderation in the US? A structural analysis Fabio Canova ICREA-UPF, CREI, AMeN and CEPR Final version: December Abstract This paper investigates what has caused output and in⁄ation volatility to fall in the US using a small scale structural model using Bayesian techniques and rolling samples. There. eterizations of the model, the great moderation can generate an external imbalance which is about % of GDP 25 years after its onset and reaches 7% of GDP in the long run. Actual US imbalances are quite larger than these numbers, nevertheless the imbalances explained by the great moderation are non-trivial and account for about.
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In this paper, we examine the Great Moderation using a state-level empirical business cycle model that allows for state-specific volatility reductions. Our approach follows Owyang et al. (), who used an empirical model based on the Markov-switching model of Hamilton () to examine cross-sectional variation in the timing and magnitude of state-level business by: This paper documents the Great Moderation at the state level, finding significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of states' structural breaks.
For example, we find that 14 states had breaks that occurred at least three years before or after the aggregate break, while another 11 states did not experience any statistically important break during the by: great moderation state-level analysis aggregate volatility reduction state-level employment data nd signi cant heterogeneity productivity shock cross-sectional heterogeneity aggregate macroeconomic volatility statistically-signi cant reduction improved inventory management federal reserve system valerie ramey empirical model state-level volatility reduction business cycle paper bene usual disclaimer possible explanation federal reserve bank research assistance monetary policy jim.
Reserve governor Ben Bernanke described the phenomenon as “The Great Moderation.” In this paper, we examine the Great Moderation using a state-level empirical business cycle model that allows for state-specific volatility reductions.
A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy Piger, and Howard J. Wally Research Department Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P.O. Box St. Louis, MO Preliminary Draft Keywords: disaggregation, volatility reduction.
A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early s. Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level employment data and find significant heterogeneity in the timing and magnitude of the state-level volatility reductions.
A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation Article in Regional Science and Urban Economics 38(6) February with 50 Reads How we measure 'reads'. In “The Great Moderation in Economic Volatility: A View from the States,” Jerry Carlino discusses these questions and makes the case that using state-level rather than just national data.
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation. By Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy M. Piger and Howard J. Wall. Download PDF ( KB) Abstract. A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early s.
Using an empirical model of business cycles, we extend this line of research to state-level. A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation.
By Michael T. Owyang, Jeremy Piger, Howard J. Wall and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Get PDF ( KB) Abstract. A number of studies have documented a reduction in aggregate macroeconomic volatility beginning in the early s.
federal reserve bank state-level analysis great moderation preliminary material unpublished material official position federal reserve system critical comment individual author Powered by:.
A state-level analysis of the Great Moderation☆ Michael T. Owyanga, Jeremy Pigerb, Howard J. Walla,⁎ a Research Division, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis, P.O. BoxSt. Louis, MOUSA b Department of Economics, University of Oregon, Eugene, ORUSA article info abstract Article history: Received 28 September Received in revised form 20 May "Job flows, jobless recoveries, and the Great Moderation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol.
76(C), pages R. Jason Faberman, " Job flows, jobless recoveries, and the Great Moderation," Working PapersFederal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised This paper explores the relationships between local or national housing markets and recent historic transformations in global capitalism.
It proposes a periodization of developments in housing markets, policies and practices distinguishing between. The "Great Moderation" and the US External Imbalance.
The Great Moderation from the mids to was a welcome period of relative calm after the volatility of the Great Inflation. 1 Under the chairmanships of Volcker (ending in ), Greenspan () and Bernanke (starting in ), inflation was low and relatively stable, while the period contained the longest economic expansion since World War II.
Looking back, economists may differ. The UK great moderation from to low inflation, positive economic growth. Generally, the great moderation refers to the period – In the UK, the great moderation is considered to be the period because the UK had a classic boom and bust in late s and early s.
The UK experienced 63 consecutive quarters of. On the Sources of the Great Moderation by Jordi Galí and Luca Gambetti. Published in volume 1, issue 1, pages of American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, JanuaryAbstract: The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by.
In economics, the Great Moderation is the reduction in the volatility of business cycle fluctuations in developed nations starting in the mids, compared with the decades before. It is believed to be caused by institutional and structural changes, particularly in central bank policies, in the later half of the twentieth century.
Sometime during the mids major economic variables such as real gross domestic product growth. It also depends on the prompt, but you still can talk about things that are important to you.
They can be, your achievements, problem solving skills through your unique personal approach to problems and conflicts, your leadership qualities and how you lead a group in the past, it could also be something that changed your mind or your life.
Common Features of the Great Moderation By: Michael Clark* University of Houston Novem Abstract While the Great Moderation, the large decline in aggregate volatility, is one of the most widely recognized characteristics of the modern U.S. economy, there is no consensus on what caused it.VOL.
99 NO. 4 BENATI AND SURICO: VAR A NALySIS AND ThE GREAT MODERATION This paper tries to reconcile the two sets of conflicting results by asking whether methodologi- cal differences between the two approaches may account for the different outcomes they tend to produce.AND THE GREAT MODERATION byLuca Benati and Paolo Surico.
WORKING PAPER SERIES NO / FEBRUARY In all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the 10 banknote. VAR ANALYSIS AND THE GREAT MODERATION 1 Luca Benati 2 and Paolo Surico 3 This paper can be downloaded without charge from.